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Thread: How near are we to the end of ICE motorcycles?

  1. #221
    bwringer's Avatar
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    I may have posted this earlier, but I will not be surprised if I have to fuel my GS in 20 or 30 years using a drum of gasoline from Menard's or whatever. Maybe it'll take a little longer than that.
    1983 GS850G, Cosmos Blue.
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    Eat more venison.

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    AS europe goes the entire world follows, some patriotic americans may object having foreigners deciding the future but manufacturers don't care about patriotism they sell to the world market and the US isn't the largest market for for Motorcycle manufacturers. Profit trumps patriotism.
    https://www.bennetts.co.uk/bikesocia...to-motorcycles


    Already various models are disappearing from production as they can no longer meet emission standards.
    https://www.motorcyclenews.com/news/...ons-standards/
    1979 CBX, AW440 Maico, GS1150EF

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wire Fox View Post

    That said about the feasibility of these totally phasing out ICE motorcycles? I think we actually are going to be pretty close to that goal in 15 years. I think in 5-10 years, we're going to see most manufacturers producing a lot of e-vehicle options, including motorcycles. By the 15 year point, the ICE options will be very limited. I think then, we'll be down to just industrial/commercial equipment and a few special purpose vehicles holding onto ICE platforms. We love our used vehicles here in the U.S., so I think that ICE vehicles will still hang out for another 30 or so years as people still buy & sell ICE cars secondhand for daily use.

    ...I'm sure someone already posted it here, but there's that proposed UK standard to have a fairly rapid phase-out of new ICE sales. I think we can do it.
    Hard to predict the future but Climate change but if it accelerates and the consequences become ever more apparent and costly there is no guarantee governments everywhere won't ban all ICE use. Think of it like the Covid pandemic, politicians and nations dragging their feet either in denial or protecting their denier voter base finally come to the realization that "oh hell this s**t is real, we need to do something RFN! ". And that would be the end of ICE.

    Norway has already a last ICE sale date of 2025, UK by 2030, Canada 2035. ICE diehard naysayers can protest all they want but it's happening and not fake news from the "media". Not liking/denying what they hear doesn't make the reality of the facts go away.

    And the driving force behind national restrictions are likely city bans/restrictions on ICE. Not even private reserves of fuel for our vintage collectibles if they're not allowed on the road in cities.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/citi...les-by-2030-15
    1979 CBX, AW440 Maico, GS1150EF

  4. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by wyly View Post
    Already various models are disappearing from production as they can no longer meet emission standards.
    https://www.motorcyclenews.com/news/...ons-standards/
    Yep, we are at or very near the end of the carburetor.

    There was an immense wave of bellowing and harrumphing from KLR650 aficionados when word hit the streets that the new '21 model would be fuel injected.

    Frankly, it's astonishing that they were able to keep the carburetor as long as they did.

    And I'm more personally offended that the thing gained even more weight somehow yet didn't gain any power from the switch to FI.

    KLR-istas are a legendarily frugal crowd (although the GSR skinflints here are in the team photo), but it's astonishing how values of running first-gen KLRs (through 2007) have actually risen; they're a little less heavy and a bit more dirtworthy in a few different ways than the second-gen 2008-2020 models. A first-gen KLR that hasn't been tossed down a mountain too many times or stored in a pond can run into real money now.
    Last edited by bwringer; 07-29-2021 at 05:53 PM.
    1983 GS850G, Cosmos Blue.
    2005 KLR685, Aztec Pink - Turd II.3, the ReReReTurdening
    2015 Yamaha FJ-09, Magma Red Power Corrupts...
    Eat more venison.

    Please provide details. The GSR Hive Mind is nearly omniscient, but not yet clairvoyant.

    Celeriter equita, converteque saepe.

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    Earlier I posted that in a 100 years there would a replacement for lithium ion batteries, it may already be here.

    CATL a battery designer that supplies batteries to Tesla has announced that it's new battery Sodium-ion has a quick charge feature that allows 80% recharge in 15 minutes, has greatly reduced thermal danger and better cold temperature capability than Lithium ion, plus it can used together in battery packs with Lithium ion.

    We're never running out of sodium, the sixth most common element on earth.

    Questions to be answered, can they make it small enough to fit in a motorcycle and what's it's range.
    Last edited by wyly; 08-01-2021 at 12:36 AM.
    1979 CBX, AW440 Maico, GS1150EF

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    The breakthrough solution for EV motorcycles could lie with solid state batteries. QuantumScape is an ultra secretive battery developer that's working with Volkswagen the worlds 2nd largest auto manufacturer. QuantumScape claims it's batteries pack 30-50% more power in their batteries than an equivalent sized Li ion battery, are far less prone to overheating and have superior sub-zero operating characteristics. With range claims of 400, 450 and 500 miles, 80% recharge in 12-15 minutes and still retain 80% reusable charging after 800 charges. Production should begin in 2025.

    It's hard to find hard data to back up the claims as the company is hyper secretive, is it a massive fraud like the Theranos fiasco or the real deal. I'd like to believe it's real because of their connection with but then VW was involved in it's own fraud with phony diesel claims a few years back.

    If the battery specs are legit the solution for motorcycle range and charge times would seem to be at hand. A 250-300 mile range with a 15 min quick charge would suffice for most of our needs, 800 recharge cycles could result in an effective 200,000 mile battery lifespan. No more oil changes, spark plugs, carbs, fuel mapping, all our modifications and tinkering will be reduced to suspension and appearance. Perhaps the swapping of better electric motors and more potent battery packs but with the performance figures they already have that may be unnecessary.

    We won't know the truth behind the hype until VW actually has these batteries in their vehicles.

    https://www.quantumscape.com/newsroom/

    Looking at EV production numbers the electric age is really here, Tesla is producing nearly 700,000 cars per year. VW says it will surpass Tesla in the next two years with 1.5 million per year. Only 2-3 years ago I'd see the occasional Tesla and made sure to point it out to the wife, now I see them daily. With quickly rising production numbers the effective end of ICE will come before government mandated ICE ban dates, demand for ICE's and ICE resale will dry up as consumer waiting lists are satisfied. Even ICE die hards will give up the fight as the economic reality/insanity of refuelling their beloved ICE's vs buying a new EV becomes apparent.
    Last edited by wyly; 08-03-2021 at 01:17 PM.
    1979 CBX, AW440 Maico, GS1150EF

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    Wyly, you have started and run a great thread here. I love stopping in to learn something new.
    "Thought he, it is a wicked world in all meridians; I'll die a pagan."
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    2016 1200 Superlow
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    Thanks I'm curious as to where we're all headed and thought I might as well share what I find.

    I try to find as much EV motorcycle info as I can but most of what read is about EV cars. EV cars will be sharing the technology with all transport so anyone following the thread can see the potential as it relates to motorcycles.
    1979 CBX, AW440 Maico, GS1150EF

  9. #229
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    Baatfam is offline Forum LongTimer Past Site Supporter
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    Quote Originally Posted by wyly View Post
    I try to find as much EV motorcycle info as I can but most of what read is about EV cars.
    Have you visited the elmoto.net forum?
    Bob T.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Baatfam View Post
    Have you visited the elmoto.net forum?
    I have now, nice site thanks.
    1979 CBX, AW440 Maico, GS1150EF

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