When do you expect ev bikes to become practical road bikes.

[dpep]

Electric powered cycles already outsell ICE motorcycles by a large amount in the U.S. Most of them just happen to be a little slower and with less range than we here on this website are used to.

In 2021, the last year for which I could find published numbers for both, 880,000 or so electric bicycles were sold in the U.S. versus 576,000 total motorcycles including electric ones (30,000+). I do not have the exact numbers but in 2022 motorcycles sales dipped slightly while ebike sales continued to shoot up. That gap is going to continue to widen

As I stated earlier in this thread we are probably trying to observe the adoption of electric motorcycles using the wrong paradigm. tn the not too distant future most e-motorcycle purchasers are going to be riders moving up from e-bicycles not ones moving over from ICE motorcycles. The future belongs to the young and for an ever increasing number of them E power is the reality they know and feel comfortable with.

Meanwhile us old farts can bemoan those young whipper snappers and hang on to our reality by selling our old ICE motorcycles back and forth to each other. :lol:

 

[Suzukian]

I rode a lot longer and further when I was young. The E-cycles just don't have the range and take too long to charge for what I did. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the e-cyclist move up to bigger bore ICE Motorcycles. It will be a while before the battery tech makes a 6 hour ride an easy thing to do at 75 mph (or substantially more), with 5 minute stops for gas. I also pulled a hack for 6 years. That could have used some batteries for ballast though, a possible hybrid solution?

 

[GS1150Pilot]

I think Don has it right. Most of those e-cyclists are urban and suburban-not Easy Rider. They will do most of their mileage in and around cities. Some will travel across state lines, and a few will do long cross country sojourns, but the infrastructure will be adequate for their needs soon enough.

 

[Suzukian]

I guess that would depend where you are going. The charging station intervals will be along main roads. Not much for exploring. I don't count the light weight e-bikes amongst motorcyclists. they are people who can ride their bicycles further. IMHO

 

[wyly]

Your original question was "When do you expect ev bikes to become practical road bikes". The piece that leaves out is, "for who". For a small number of people they're practical right now. For the group of typical day riders I mentioned earlier, probably 2-4 years. For me, likely 5-7. For a very small subset of people, 10-15.

Excellent point.

98-99% of my rides are now less than 80miles, those will be urban miles. I know longer have any interest in epic journeys or even weekend adventures. Occasional my brother in law will want to do a day cruise through the neighbouring Rockies but that's as far as I go from home now.

Urban adventures, there are already bikes perfect for that like the Zero but the cost of the Zero too much for me. Day trips, again the Zero would work for range with infrastructure but that isn't in place as yet, not sure about the Zero's charge time even if it was. I'm at the 5-7 year years as well. But will I even be riding then, this aging thing seems to be speeding up.

 

[Rob S.]

...just don't have the range and (recharge times)...

There are the two factors in a nutshell.

Around here (suburbs of NY City), electric scooters are the main delivery vehicles for restaurants, groceries, pharmacies etc. I don't consider them motorcycles, and virtually none of those delivery people will 'upgrade' to a larger ICE.

A 'horse-less' carriage? It'll never work. :hopelessness:

 

[GS1150Pilot]

Zero has charge times down to between 1 and 2 hours at present.

 

[rphillips]

I don't know why, just thought about it, I punched up facilities with most charging stations and was surprised. In June 2023 the top 5 were Hotels-2,855, Auto dealers-2,754, Office buildings-897, Federal govt. (whatever that means)-864, and Parking lots-782... I know they can be found many places, but which of these top 5 would any of us want to sit for 2 to 4 hrs, waiting for a charge... I did expect the Hotels but my mind was thinking more like Shopping centers, Restaurants, Amusement and city parks. As far as I know our town has 3, City Hall, Senior citizen center, and City Park, We had one at Cracker Barrell Rest. but it has been taken out.

 

[Cipher]

Electric powered cycles already outsell ICE motorcycles by a large amount in the U.S. Most of them just happen to be a little slower and with less range than we here on this website are used to.

In 2021, the last year for which I could find published numbers for both, 880,000 or so electric bicycles were sold in the U.S. versus 576,000 total motorcycles including electric ones (30,000+). I do not have the exact numbers but in 2022 motorcycles sales dipped slightly while ebike sales continued to shoot up. That gap is going to continue to widen

As I stated earlier in this thread we are probably trying to observe the adoption of electric motorcycles using the wrong paradigm. tn the not too distant future most e-motorcycle purchasers are going to be riders moving up from e-bicycles not ones moving over from ICE motorcycles. The future belongs to the young and for an ever increasing number of them E power is the reality they know and feel comfortable with.

Meanwhile us old farts can bemoan those young whipper snappers and hang on to our reality by selling our old ICE motorcycles back and forth to each other. :lol:

Odd but I think c. 1960 the largest motor vehicle manufacturer by units was Honda. All or nearly all small bikes that sold well. 20 years later they'd perfected the Civic and were the best car maker in the world. They more or less still are.

so many opinions on this subject are based on personal parochial views with no real understanding that manufacturers will make what people will buy.
your boy racer image and dimwitted love of noisy antiques be damned.

id buy an electric bike if it had a 170 mile range without any qualms. Also If the industry would develop a common battery everyone wins.

 

[Rob S.]

Zero has charge times down to between 1 and 2 hours at present.

Is that a "manufacturer's claim"? Is that for a 100% charge? Starting at what percentage?

Even if it took one hour to charge a fully drained battery to 100%, that still falls far short. If that were as far as the technology could go, it would take a seismic shift that would take generations. Very few who had living memory of gasoline ICEs would accept that.

Maybe we should roam in the desert until all who had first hand knowledge of the convenience of gas ICEs died off. :grief:

 

[rphillips]

Did you say A common battery?, I've never known that to work on nothing but lawn mowers. It's a lot like auto oil filters, they've all got to be different.

 

[Suzukian]

Toyota is making some pretty intense claims (Toyota is a believable company, IMHO). If they pan out, there should be a lot of I.C.E. used vehicles for me to buy, while everyone else gets in debt for the new cars, the new $10K to $15K batteries when they cr@ap out for some reason.

Kia''s car comes with a 100,000 mile warranty, or a couple of years, whichever comes first. When the car came out, the replacement battery was stated to cost $6000 dollars, they are now up to $29K as they can't even get them for new cars. This is making some people with cars that, except for the battery, are in excellent condition almost worthless. Now, KIA states that when the supply picks up, the prices will drop dramatically. I wonder if they will ever drop to the $6K they told customers when they first purchased the car.

 

[GS1150Pilot]

Is that a "manufacturer's claim"? Is that for a 100% charge? Starting at what percentage?

Even if it took one hour to charge a fully drained battery to 100%, that still falls far short. If that were as far as the technology could go, it would take a seismic shift that would take generations. Very few who had living memory of gasoline ICEs would accept that.

Maybe we should roam in the desert until all who had first hand knowledge of the convenience of gas ICEs died off. :grief:

Rob, just a question: When was the last time you rode a motorcycle more than 50 miles?

I get your point, but the point I was underscoring is that, in city commuting, the Zeros and their ilk seem to be delivering. There is more to do to get e-cycles to be fully competitive with their IC brethren, but it is happening and it will accelerate. For my commute to and from work, I would seriously consider owning a Zero right now.

 

[Cipher]

Did you say A common battery?, I've never known that to work on nothing but lawn mowers. It's a lot like auto oil filters, they've all got to be different.

What an odd thing to say. Reread and add scantest thought to what you wrote.

 

[wyly]

Is that a "manufacturer's claim"? Is that for a 100% charge? Starting at what percentage?

Even if it took one hour to charge a fully drained battery to 100%, that still falls far short. If that were as far as the technology could go, it would take a seismic shift that would take generations. Very few who had living memory of gasoline ICEs would accept that.

Maybe we should roam in the desert until all who had first hand knowledge of the convenience of gas ICEs died off. :grief:

Generations? you need to keep abreast of battery technology, one Chinese battery developer claims it's already achieved 20ish minutes with it's solid state prototypes and is aiming for 7-8 minutes that's about the time I spend at an ICE fuel up not including food and pee breaks. Toyota has it's sights on 2027-28 for 10 minute charge time, Toyota tends to be very secretive and conservative about it's technological developments. So it's far from generations, it's just around the corner.

 

[wyly]

Toyota's time line for Solid State batteries.

I think Solid state needs to happen for cars before the technology trickles down to motorcycles, producing cars is a much more lucrative market than motorcycles. Honda or possibly a Chinese battery manufacturer may lead the way with SS for motorcycles.

Do we still call them "motor"cycles if they all become EV's?

https://www.autoweek.com/news/a4518...licks, NON AM 90D Opens, Both Subbed Last 30D

 

[rphillips]

Why weren't they always ENGINEcycles, my understanding has always been motors are fueled by elect. and engines are fueled by combustion... The new EV bikes will be a more true MOTORcycles.

 

[rphillips]

Not much doubt, when the batts. get to the point 200 mi. on a charge and 10min. recharge, even if they don't last 20 yrs., all of todays service (gas) stns will immediately be installing EV charging stations. Hoping to be there by that 2027 or 28 estimate... Ask me 5 yrs from now, I'll have a much better idea how it's going.

 

[Cipher]

Why weren't they always ENGINEcycles, my understanding has always been motors are fueled by elect. and engines are fueled by combustion... The new EV bikes will be a more true MOTORcycles.

The old argument. Its silly words.
an engine is any driving force so a crate motor is a motor till its installed and harnessed to do work.

 

[Rob S.]

Generations? you need to keep abreast...

The beginning of my "generations" sentence starts with the word "if." :ghost: