wyly, It all depends. I have no clue if the EV's go into an "electronics" class as DVR's, cell phones, or pocket calculators, if so ICE will be gone pretty quick... If EV's go in the class of "elect motors", heat/AC motors, golf carts, or train engine motors, they may never get cheaper. And the batteries, there's all kinds of ideas floating around out there but buying batteries for 55+ yrs, no matter what new technology, I don't remember their prices going down much. The newer auto, bike, and DC batts. seem to keep going up. With newer technology, AGM, gel cell, the prices seem to keep going up. With the Lithium Ion the price has more than doubled... Am Hoping things will evolve into what you're thinking, but like I insinuated in post # 51, still too many unknowns to have a clue what may be happening in 2035... Hope I'm still around to see how it turns out.
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When do you expect ev bikes to become practical road bikes.
- Thread starter wyly
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I posted in another thread the advances that Toyota is making with non Lithium based batteries. They will be in their Hybrid cars next years, and supposedly, full electric within 2 years after that. They have made an electric car that has a 745 mile range. Toyota is very conservative and doesn't post anything unless they are pretty sure. If Toyota does accomplish it's goals, then honestly, I think E.V.'s will be around the corner. Of course, Bill Gates was just reported as drilling a hole in the ground in Canada and extracting Hydrogen really cheap through some patented process. ICE cars will, and run very well off of Hydrogen, and Toyota is pursuing that also.
Time will tell, but to be honest, I don't know many people that can go out an buy any kind of Hybrid or EV.. They cost too much money. I know a lot of people. I also know quite a few that turned in their E.V.'s and returned to used ICE cars. Not having a monthly payment on a nice car you get for free from a family member, or like the Subaru Forester I just purchased a year ago for 10K, 90K miles, and runs great, I get 32 mpg, I have no car payments,3 cars (the other is a 2002 Subaru Forester 250K miles, and runs great, a 2014 Avalon with 64K miles on it) and no monthly payments (that excludes my M.G. Midget, and my 1973 450SL Benz, which I own outright). I do not see an EV in my lifetime. Frankly, the only monthly payments I have are my Mortgage, electric bill, and Oil for the furnace, and gasoline, when I need it..
Time will tell, but to be honest, I don't know many people that can go out an buy any kind of Hybrid or EV.. They cost too much money. I know a lot of people. I also know quite a few that turned in their E.V.'s and returned to used ICE cars. Not having a monthly payment on a nice car you get for free from a family member, or like the Subaru Forester I just purchased a year ago for 10K, 90K miles, and runs great, I get 32 mpg, I have no car payments,3 cars (the other is a 2002 Subaru Forester 250K miles, and runs great, a 2014 Avalon with 64K miles on it) and no monthly payments (that excludes my M.G. Midget, and my 1973 450SL Benz, which I own outright). I do not see an EV in my lifetime. Frankly, the only monthly payments I have are my Mortgage, electric bill, and Oil for the furnace, and gasoline, when I need it..
I agree with all of that. Do I know many people that can afford an hybrid or ev? I would guess most people that I know could, but if they have a an ice that works perfectly fine and they're not in a hurry to take on extra payments and insurance why would they. Some people like me drive the same vehicle until it disintegrates and others like shiny new toys and trade them in every 4 years.
I can afford it but paying $1k+ for a new vehicle when the ICE's I have run perfectly fine is a hard sell, the price of ICE fuel is minor compared to $1k+ per month for a new ev or hybrid. The switch if it comes will happen when and if I need a new vehicle maybe not in my lifetime as I'm an old geezer. I've got no mortgage, no debt and a healthy pension income, my life is comfortable I'm not in a hurry to make the switch. I'll rethink that in 3-4 yrs when the first practical ev or hybrid pickups become available. I'm not counting on that I only just yesterday saw a Toyota Rav4 Prime for the first time and they've been sold since 2020. I'd love that in pickup version.
My kids in their 30's making waaaay more money than when I was their age, prices for them is something they're used to. Owning a hybrid or ev is in their immediate plans, financially it's smart because they'll save fuel and maintenance costs. They also have or will have kids the environmental consequences have more relevance to them than to an old gezzer who'll be gone in 10 yrs.
I can afford it but paying $1k+ for a new vehicle when the ICE's I have run perfectly fine is a hard sell, the price of ICE fuel is minor compared to $1k+ per month for a new ev or hybrid. The switch if it comes will happen when and if I need a new vehicle maybe not in my lifetime as I'm an old geezer. I've got no mortgage, no debt and a healthy pension income, my life is comfortable I'm not in a hurry to make the switch. I'll rethink that in 3-4 yrs when the first practical ev or hybrid pickups become available. I'm not counting on that I only just yesterday saw a Toyota Rav4 Prime for the first time and they've been sold since 2020. I'd love that in pickup version.
My kids in their 30's making waaaay more money than when I was their age, prices for them is something they're used to. Owning a hybrid or ev is in their immediate plans, financially it's smart because they'll save fuel and maintenance costs. They also have or will have kids the environmental consequences have more relevance to them than to an old gezzer who'll be gone in 10 yrs.
I get it, what I do is take a couple steps back and look at how far technology has come in my lifetime, when you stand too close you don't appreciate the speed of advancement. Announcements on new battery and ev technological are now a weekly occurrence knowledge is growing at an incredible pace.
If you're like me I still have in my mind that I can buy a nice new car or truck for $5k lol that was such a long time ago... I have trouble grasping $100K+ for a new pick up but that's where we are today.
Being old or older we have in our mind what prices and the cost of living were and expect it to stay that way, it doesn't and never has. Sticker shock is an old people thing.
The average ICE lasts 10yrs, 2035 is 12 yrs off it's simple math and manufacturers know it.. Some manufacturers intend to eliminate their ICE's before 2030 they've done their calculations and plan to be ahead of the curve, don't be late to the party! Then there is the sales tipping point of 5% , when ev or hybrid sales hit that mark sales take off, this has been reflected in other country's ev, hybrid sales.
My kid bought a Tesla 3, the "performance" model, and holy hell, is that car FAST! 0-60 mph in less than 4 seconds? It's crazy! That said, every time he comes back from riding his MT-07 Yamaha, he's grinning ear to ear. The experience of riding an IC bike is just so special. The shifting, sound, and LIGHTWEIGHT. EV's are heavy. The MotoGP EV's are way heavier than the IC bikes. No engine braking, too. Just a different experience...one I have no interest in.
I know people who could buy E.V.'s, but in a family with an average with2 to 3 kids, they can buy E.V.'s and not come up with the money for a down payment to get a house. Houses where I live aren't inexpensive. They not insane either, but just judging by the neighbors I know, what they do, they make good money, but they all drive ICE vehicles. They don't want to put out that kind of cash out, and that kind of monthly bill.
My neighbor sold his Prius, which he purchased new, and I wish I had new, as he sold it because the battery pack died out. The local Toyota dealership wanted more than $3K to replace it. I found a site that sells everything you need, and they have an excellent step by step YouTube video on how to put it in. The price is around $1.7K. He didn't say how much he sold the Prius for, but he felt that all in all it wasn't worth it (His words). He had a relative who gave him a mint condition Toyota Camry, and he is loving the way quote "a real car feels again". I read somewhere around 36% of people who buy or lease E.V.'s don't do so again.
If he had told me about his Prius, and paid for the parts, in about 2 hours we could have installed the new one, which has better regenerative electricity making. I think he really wanted out of that car. He never really liked the car.
My neighbor sold his Prius, which he purchased new, and I wish I had new, as he sold it because the battery pack died out. The local Toyota dealership wanted more than $3K to replace it. I found a site that sells everything you need, and they have an excellent step by step YouTube video on how to put it in. The price is around $1.7K. He didn't say how much he sold the Prius for, but he felt that all in all it wasn't worth it (His words). He had a relative who gave him a mint condition Toyota Camry, and he is loving the way quote "a real car feels again". I read somewhere around 36% of people who buy or lease E.V.'s don't do so again.
If he had told me about his Prius, and paid for the parts, in about 2 hours we could have installed the new one, which has better regenerative electricity making. I think he really wanted out of that car. He never really liked the car.
Depending on model of Tesla the performance figures 0-60 range from 2 sec to 3.5. I've come across one claim the roadster is 1.1 sec, not sure I believe that I thought the roadster was out of production. Regardless if it's sub 4 secs that's super-car acceleration.
A fast on a bike will always feel different even when it matches those times, there's nothing quite like that blast of wind, a screaming engine, being fully exposed to the environment with potential of a sudden death to make the heart beat faster.
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Well, He started driving an ICE again and "He's loving the way a real car feels again" It sounds as if he wasn't too impressed with the Prius anyway, even before the batt. problem... I've heard the 0 to 60 #'s mentioned a couple of times... I've not thought much about EV Muscle cars, I've just been hoping them becoming very dependable, economical, and green. After they get the better and practical part, that wyly mentioned, figured, then the racing stuff. Can you imagine a full sized EV race track, with a slot for a pin on the car, like the old slot cars were?... Those things were so fast they were hard to watch..
I agree. I think he purchased the car for gas consumption, but never realized he was giving up the joy of driving.
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I am not aware of any pending legislation that will require everyone to immediately get rid of their ICE vehicles and buy EV. But that is the scenario I see being addressed by most of the EV critics I see posting on this and other websites.
The transition to electric powered transportation is a process, not an event. As people wear out or tire of their current vehicles they will replace them with ones that suit their needs and wants. Each of these advances in EV development simply add to the options buyers have by making them suitable or in some cases superior for an increasing number of uses.
EVs and hybrids make very good sense to a large segment of the market now and the size of that segment will continue to grow as the technology advances and production scale increases.
Would an electric motorcycle make a good choice for long distance touring? Of course not and neither would a lot of ICE motorcycle models. Would a Gold Wing make a good choice for urban commuting on narrow streets in heavy traffic? No, actually a scooter, electric or ICE, might well be the better choice. But that does not cause us to condemn God Wings as unworthy motorcycles.
The arguments I see against electric motorcycles almost always focus on what the bike was not designed and/or expected to do while ignoring its intended use.
The transition to electric powered transportation is a process, not an event. As people wear out or tire of their current vehicles they will replace them with ones that suit their needs and wants. Each of these advances in EV development simply add to the options buyers have by making them suitable or in some cases superior for an increasing number of uses.
EVs and hybrids make very good sense to a large segment of the market now and the size of that segment will continue to grow as the technology advances and production scale increases.
Would an electric motorcycle make a good choice for long distance touring? Of course not and neither would a lot of ICE motorcycle models. Would a Gold Wing make a good choice for urban commuting on narrow streets in heavy traffic? No, actually a scooter, electric or ICE, might well be the better choice. But that does not cause us to condemn God Wings as unworthy motorcycles.
The arguments I see against electric motorcycles almost always focus on what the bike was not designed and/or expected to do while ignoring its intended use.
The pricing of these vehicles means (in my opinion) that a lot of people will have to buy used E.V.'s as their entry into that type of car. These newer bigger E.V's really use expensive tires. That's not going to change. There's not necessarily anything wrong with that if they have the kind of market depreciation that most cars have. A handy person may on certain vehicles find after market rebuild battery kits and end up getting a great deal. These are heavy cars, and they are fast, but they don't handle very well. I can easily take 1.2 G turns on my slightly modified M.G. Midget (1973), where as an E.V. on the same normal Connecticut would be out of control.. The super expensive ones don't have that problem, but they cost the price of a small house.
I also believe that the synthetic fuels, that F1 cars will start using very soon, are going to open the door, and these fuels are backward compatible. Some states saying they will not allow ICE vehicles manufactured after 2035 to be sold, that to me is ridiculous. There is a lot of pollution going on in the making of E.V. batteries that has not been addressed. 3rd world poor countries always get these cr@ppy jobs and beautiful ecology systems are forever destroyed.
Just 1 of many articles on this issue.
https://earth.org/environmental-impact-of-battery-production/
I also believe that the synthetic fuels, that F1 cars will start using very soon, are going to open the door, and these fuels are backward compatible. Some states saying they will not allow ICE vehicles manufactured after 2035 to be sold, that to me is ridiculous. There is a lot of pollution going on in the making of E.V. batteries that has not been addressed. 3rd world poor countries always get these cr@ppy jobs and beautiful ecology systems are forever destroyed.
Just 1 of many articles on this issue.
https://earth.org/environmental-impact-of-battery-production/
As the bikes' range extends, I can see them becoming more popular. Much as I enjoy the sound of my Harley, I find the BMW's relative quiet much nicer for lengthy rides. The thought of touring on a bike that needs no fuel, no warm-up, and which lets me just enjoy the ride is appealing, especially as technology allows for more and better charging options.
For myself, we are very, very, very, very close....Generally only go out for a few hours at a time, so yes....
Used bikes are almost there, cost wise....
I could have fun with this....
https://www.cycletrader.com/listing/2021-Zero+Motorcycles-SR+ZF14.4-5026298600
Used bikes are almost there, cost wise....
I could have fun with this....
https://www.cycletrader.com/listing/2021-Zero+Motorcycles-SR+ZF14.4-5026298600
Having had an electronic repair shop for 10 years, I can tell you that the problems you are going to face with speed controllers, windings burning out, bearings, and a whole slew of other problems, E.V.'s aren't going to be the maintenance free car you may think they will be. I'll know how to fix that kind of stuff, I have O'Scopes and circuit tracers, in circuit capacitor testers (that you have to be licensed to own), but the average person or backyard mechanic won't. I do see an increasing I.C.E. parts industry booming as people keep their cars going, fixing them, converting them to propane, or doing any modification if necessary for synthetic fuel.
I don't know anyone who can afford a $100K pickup. I know people who lease trucks close to that amount, and are constantly looking for good used trucks so they can get out of their lease. I know a lot of people who lease E.V.'s and I.C.E. vehicles, and it costs them a lot. They rent condos, or apartments, and are paying off massive student loans for jobs that don't pay what they thought they would. I doubt they will ever be able to own a home, which is paying yourself rent, and getting all the equity from that process.
If I had a good back, using a Prius battery pack, I could make my own Hybrid, it's really not that hard to do, but you have to be in good physical strength to do that, so I'm going to build a trike within a couple of years. That may be an E.V., it depends on the consumer available parts that are becoming more and more available. With a hub motor, it could be 3 wheel drive too, which means, 1, 2, or 3 wheel drive, as you can turn the motors on and off, using the off ones a brakes for regenerative braking. Lots of possibilities.
I don't know anyone who can afford a $100K pickup. I know people who lease trucks close to that amount, and are constantly looking for good used trucks so they can get out of their lease. I know a lot of people who lease E.V.'s and I.C.E. vehicles, and it costs them a lot. They rent condos, or apartments, and are paying off massive student loans for jobs that don't pay what they thought they would. I doubt they will ever be able to own a home, which is paying yourself rent, and getting all the equity from that process.
If I had a good back, using a Prius battery pack, I could make my own Hybrid, it's really not that hard to do, but you have to be in good physical strength to do that, so I'm going to build a trike within a couple of years. That may be an E.V., it depends on the consumer available parts that are becoming more and more available. With a hub motor, it could be 3 wheel drive too, which means, 1, 2, or 3 wheel drive, as you can turn the motors on and off, using the off ones a brakes for regenerative braking. Lots of possibilities.
I keep looking at the Zero DS as a possible intro ev bike. It would be great to use it to get from home to work and back, and maybe run some light trails and fire roads on the weekend. EVentually, I can see buying an ev touring bike.
It would be interesting if we could know why this guy doesn't own this EV bike with 7200 mi. any more, or why the owners of those EV's on the used car lots don't still own them... No doubt some will be very impressed while others not so much.
Same reasons there are so many low mileage, gas powered, used bikes for sale.
