When do you expect ev bikes to become practical road bikes.

[rphillips]

I thought the same thing... But now knowing an engine was designed if the water pump went bad, it'd put water in the crankcase, would you be interested in buying it? I'd take a pass on that also.

 

[rphillips]

Maybe a little off topic, but maybe sort-of not. I've been wondering about Ford's news of losing on all EV's they sell. From everything I'm seeing Ford is losing either $66K or $35K on each EV they sell. Nearly every article I read says either one of those #'s or the other. Is that true? To brake even Ford needs to either reduce the mfg. cost of each EV by 35K or 66K, or raise the price of each EV by 35K or 66K, and I don't think any of us see that happening, and if it did Ford would still be getting no profit, just braking even. It may be crazy, but I can't keep from wondering if the govt., with their huge push for EV's might be is reimbursing Ford for all or part of these losses. How are Ford's profits still up 17% this yr if they're losing this much on each EV sold. Also it seems everybody is pushing for and expecting EV sales to go up. If Ford lost $3 billion this yr. on EV sales, Is Ford hoping to sell twice as many EV's next yr. so they can lose $6B instead of $3B as they did this yr.? Shouldn't we think Ford would want to reduce their losses instead of increasing them? Just don't make sense? So much just don't make sense.

 

[RichDesmond]

Maybe a little off topic, but maybe sort-of not. I've been wondering about Ford's news of losing on all EV's they sell. From everything I'm seeing Ford is losing either $66K or $35K on each EV they sell. Nearly every article I read says either one of those #'s or the other. Is that true? To brake even Ford needs to either reduce the mfg. cost of each EV by 35K or 66K, or raise the price of each EV by 35K or 66K, and I don't think any of us see that happening, and if it did Ford would still be getting no profit, just braking even. It may be crazy, but I can't keep from wondering if the govt., with their huge push for EV's might be is reimbursing Ford for all or part of these losses. How are Ford's profits still up 17% this yr if they're losing this much on each EV sold. Also it seems everybody is pushing for and expecting EV sales to go up. If Ford lost $3 billion this yr. on EV sales, Is Ford hoping to sell twice as many EV's next yr. so they can lose $6B instead of $3B as they did this yr.? Shouldn't we think Ford would want to reduce their losses instead of increasing them? Just don't make sense? So much just don't make sense.

I would take those numbers with a grain of salt. It sounds like they are including all the EV R&D they've done in the "cost" of each vehicle. Since they haven't sold a bunch of EVs yet, each one gets assigned a large R&D number. If you did the same sort of accounting for the Model T I'm sure Henry lost a ton of money on the first few thousand.

What really matters in the long run is the variable cost, i.e. how much is the cost of production for each EV. We don't know those numbers, so we really don't know how much profit or loss there really is in the EVs.
Given what GM did the other day with stock buy backs and dividend increased, I don't think the automakers are hurting.

 

[dorkburger]

Not bike related but definitely interesting and impressive work from a young dude.


https://youtu.be/ROtRiO5rECk?si=cCvkfFmG5wu1ohAX

 

[GS1150Pilot]

Super cool, Glen!

 

[wyly]

Not bike related but definitely interesting and impressive work from a young dude.


https://youtu.be/ROtRiO5rECk?si=cCvkfFmG5wu1ohAX

it's relatable, Kawasaki has Ninja hybrid I expect it'll be on sale next year.

 

[rphillips]

He seems to be designing more for the customer than the dealer. Put together from mostly relatively available parts... Imagine how nice it would be to never need to go to a dealer for parts.

 

[dpep]

Not bike related but definitely interesting and impressive work from a young dude.


https://youtu.be/ROtRiO5rECk?si=cCvkfFmG5wu1ohAX

Super interesting. I watched the whole damn thing. I am impressed with just how practical and well thought out the product is. Ten guys working in a dirt floor Quonset hut for a year produce a truck that outperforms what the major auto & truck makers have taken years to develop. Their secret isn't some new breakthrough technology. They used existing parts and technology in the most optimal ways.

How many small groups of smart people are as we speak working in Quonset huts and garages and tents around the world on production or development of EVs or or some aspect of them? Electric motors for propulsion puts so many more people in the game.
.
p.s, I am curious though as to how that Sherman tank got hauled to the demo site.

 

[GS1150Pilot]

Super interesting. I watched the whole damn thing. I am impressed with just how practical and well thought out the product is. Ten guys working in a dirt floor Quonset hut for a year produce a truck that outperforms what the major auto & truck makers have taken years to develop. Their secret isn't some new breakthrough technology. They used existing parts and technology in the most optimal ways.

How many small groups of smart people are as we speak working in Quonset huts and garages and tents around the world on production or development of EVs or or some aspect of them? Electric motors for propulsion puts so many more people in the game.
.
p.s, I am curious though as to how that Sherman tank got hauled to the demo site.

Of course, that kind of ingenuity and a resultingly amazing product is nothing new, as I think of Ferdinand Porsche, Preston Tucker, Carroll Shelby, etc.. Perhaps electric motors put more people in the game (hard to say yet), but man has always wanted to tinker with what is on his quest for what might be.

 

[wyly]

Super interesting. I watched the whole damn thing. I am impressed with just how practical and well thought out the product is. Ten guys working in a dirt floor Quonset hut for a year produce a truck that outperforms what the major auto & truck makers have taken years to develop. Their secret isn't some new breakthrough technology. They used existing parts and technology in the most optimal ways.

How many small groups of smart people are as we speak working in Quonset huts and garages and tents around the world on production or development of EVs or or some aspect of them? Electric motors for propulsion puts so many more people in the game.
.
p.s, I am curious though as to how that Sherman tank got hauled to the demo site.

I was surprised and impressed that a lifelong gearhead trucker has environmental concerns as his motivation, it's contrary to the stereotypical image of a trucker that I had. I think I've seen too many videos of truckers rolling coal.

 

[dpep]

I was surprised and impressed that a lifelong gearhead trucker has environmental concerns as his motivation, it's contrary to the stereotypical image of a trucker that I had. I think I've seen too many videos of truckers rolling coal.

Well, he is relatively young and he IS Canadian.

 

[Jedz123]

I'm going to chime in as I own a Hybrid (first sold in America) and rebuilt a couple of battery packs, so I have some thoughts on full EVs, Hybrids and ICEs.

I personally have no interest in owning a full on EV car or motorcycle for several reasons.

1. Fire risk: Driving a car with lithium batteries presents an added dangerous situation and it's an unnecessary risk if ICE/Hybrids with NiMH vehicles are still available for sale. if you ever get into an accident that damages the battery pack or if any of the fail safe monitoring systems go south (which also does happen) you have a dangerous inextinguishable Lithium fire. I talk to many folks my age (30-40) and its all a very similar fear we have, the thought of a car going up in flames from an accident while our children are strapped into a car seat is terrifying. Especially knowing all it takes something to puncture 1 cell to close a circuit and the car goes up in flames. As per the other thread in the Campfire section. Lithium fires are becoming more and more prevalent and our fire fighters cannot fight a fire that doesn't go out, even if you place a burning battery in a lake it will still burn underwater. A good friend of mine is a fire fighter and he has reported to several EV/Lithium fires and the best course of action is to attempt to get the people out of the car and just let it burn. So as a motorcyclist I like to think I'm a master of risk management so in that, riding on top of a highly volatile battery pack with my daughter in the car is an additional risk that I would prefer not to take. I wills say, it's a risk allot of people aren't willing to take as well. Especially after my laptop battery went up in flames earlier this past year.
2. The cost, lack of value and lack of versatility: it is very expensive to get into an EV and it can never take the place of the American family do-it all vehicle which often are demanded for the annual long family vacation trip. I could not use an EV as a primary vehicle. Great example is the Holiday Family Christmas runs. IE: I could only afford a Nissan Leaf new and in that we would not have the range to visit our mothers and fathers in the Leaf, especially when the temps turned south. So an EV offers not allot of versatility or value for those folks that can only afford 1 or 2 vehicles in the garage. My neighbor bought a Leaf and after 3 months it was swapped out for Prius. Asked why he made the swap and he said... The rang isn't enough and they needed something that could easily be filled for trips. I think about the 160 people that work for me, as much as I do my best to offer an affordable wage, the recent inflation costs have put all of us upside down to true value of take home over the past 3 years. In that most folks can only afford 1 vehicle and an EV is not an option. The truth is the EV is a great spot for the 3rd vehicle but most folks can't afford 3 cars so... The EV looses out there
3. Hybrids are still just better and the better fit in a 1 to 2 car household: Right now a Hybrid with a NiMH battery is worlds safer and more practical than an EV. Why the folks I know that have bought EV have turned them in for Hybrids or choosing Hybrids over EVs after trading in their conventional ICE. They offer exceptional Fuel economy, reliably proven (and safe +20 years now) NiMH battery technology. Some run lithium but the big cars (Toyota and Honda in mind) run NiMH. It's just a safer technology, it's technically inferior in performance to Lithium but still offers north of 50MPG and over 500 miles per tank. My little Insight has gotten near 700 miles on it's 11 gallon tank. That is just incredible. Also Hybrids are backup generators on wheels. They can easily power up 5000 Watt and 10,000 Watt inverters and sip gasoline while keeping the lights on in your home. Why at this point I will always have at least 1 Hybrid car in the fold for us. You can still say, hey kids lets go to Florida, hop in and go, spend less than $50 in gas to go 1000 miles and not have to hunt charging stations. The last thing to is when the battery goes to lunch (which they all do right around 150K miles give or take 50K) the Hybrid will still start and get you home and then continue to run until you save the pennies you'll need to swap the pack out.
4. Charging infrastructure, true range and the (not so) hidden costs: Another thing I talk with folks my age about when we discuss EVs is infrastructure, the truth is there isn't much of it here in Vermont and we would need to exclusively charge at home to make it work. There is only a few charging spots in town and they are not fast charging. The other truth is, yes there are Tesla charging stations but to charge your Tesla it costs $22, that's for 250 miles. The 1000 mile trip to Florida that would cost me $50 in gas with my hybrid is going to cost me $88 in my EV. Not to mention your stuck on the route to be close to EV charging stations. Half the fun of a road trip is to get off an exit and take a back highway to beat the slab... Can't do that on an EV if you choose to travel with it. I owned a E-assist bike and it promised a 40 mile range and I bought it to commute with. I tired getting to work with it and every time it died 8-12 miles into the ride. Vermont is very hilly, very curvey which means that you go up and down ALLOT... Range here is not the same as range in Florida or New Mexico. I had an employee buy a Zero motorcycle to commute with, he ended up trading it in for an ICE bike as he would often run out of battery on the ride home... 60-80 miles. EVs get their "claimed" range from regenerative braking and low speed driving/riding (less than 50MPH). In a rural setting we don't stop and go. I have 2 stops on my 25 mile drive into work. Battery cost is also worlds more expensive for replacement than Hybrids because the Batteries are multiple times bigger in an EV. You can replace your Hybrid battery with a reputable aftermarket unit for $2200, buy rebuilt packs for $1500 and rebuild them with new sticks your self for hundreds. That isn't the case for EVs. Most times you have to remove the whole undercarriage of the car to drop the pack. I rebuilt my Hybrid NiMH packs in about 8-10 hours, 20 cells. Teslas have 10 pack each holding hundred of cells. No thank you... Battery packs work and fade over time but there is a point where they just fail to work. Tesla packs range from $5000-$20K. Sure some will get over 200K miles but there are reports of batteries going south as little as 150K miles, even less. My Insight was a deal because the pack went south at 160K miles. They just degrade after hundreds of thousands of micro discharges and charges... The truth is a lithium battery wants to be completely drained and than completely filled... If your filling half or 1/3 capacity your actually hurting the battery more. But how many people are actually pushing their EV to 4 miles left on battery to optimize life? Not many. You need a proper grid charger to make it work correctly for the long haul (For both Hybrid and EV) and that is an extra expense... Generally $500 or more. The Grid chargers will actually deplete the battery and more evenly charge and balance the cells. Great little pieces of hardware but expensive and not thought about when buying an EV or Hybrid...

So sorry for the spiel here, I own a Honda Hybrid (2nd IMA Honda) and love the car. I will always have a hybrid of some form in my door yard and it will likely be old, used and cheap. If you can work on them yourself the cost of ownership is stupid low and the versatility they bring makes it my primary car to use. EVs are always a topic of conversation, my wife, siblings, parents and friends all have recently bought new cars and we did bring up EVs and the possibility of buying one. Allot of these points were brought up. In that my parents bought a hybrid based off my experience but my siblings bought ICE turbo Hondas and hybrid Hondas that get +40MPG my friends ended up getting a Priuses. My wife and I (and many others) fear the lithium fire issue and just never want to be in an accident and than have to try escape injured (severely maybe) with our daughter from a lithium fire afterward. Allot of average folks have no interest in EVs because they don't work for our lifestyles, bring no value for their cost and they aren't happy with being sold an idea that doesn't jive with the realism of the needs of 1 or 2 car households. The dealer issue right now proves one thing. You can vote more impactful policy change by casting your dollar to the individual's ideal and the American public in general all think its not the time for EVs, clearly.

I'm secretly hoping for solid state technology. That will eliminate allot of my fears about the lithium dangers but I honestly would only buy a car with a solid state battery if it was hybrid. Or I would just use the tech in my 24 year old all aluminum Hybrid... When it's pushing 50 on it's all Aluminum body.

Cheers,

 

[Jedz123]

Not bike related but definitely interesting and impressive work from a young dude.


https://youtu.be/ROtRiO5rECk?si=cCvkfFmG5wu1ohAX

Hybrid, Awesome!

 

[Jedz123]

it's relatable, Kawasaki has Ninja hybrid I expect it'll be on sale next year.

That is a bike I'm interested in!

 

[rphillips]

Hybrids may be awesome, no clue how they're selling but I just read from CNBC that Ford has just cut the 2024 Ford Lightning EV production by half, from a planned 3200 pr. wk. to 1600 pr. wk. due to lack of customer demand... No clue where this is going, we'll just got to wait and see.

 

[dpep]

Here is an article from Wired on a technology I don't believe we have even discussed yet. It involves the use of a powder developed from silicon to replace graphite in batteries. Supposedly allows a 500 mile range and a 10 minute charging time. They are to be produced for Tesla, Mercedes, and Porsche so far.

https://www.wired.com/story/panason...a8f5-302adeb0baa6_popular4-1-reranked-by-vidi

I can't even guess what other battery technologies---ones I have not yet even heard of--are under research and development by all kinds of entities around the world. But I am going to predict that before 2030 we will be at the point where it won't make economic sense for anyone to buy a new ICE passenger vehicle..

 

[rphillips]

I've mentioned several times evolution. Looks like this may be a big step in the evolution of batteries. I've thought since this big EV push got started, batteries "will" eventually evolve into something logical and economical enough to make EV's something most of us will want and be able to afford. Just seems we're not there yet. Possibly this may be it, we'll just need to give it a while and wait and see what happens.

 

[wyly]

I'm going to chime in as I own a Hybrid (first sold in America) and rebuilt a couple of battery packs, so I have some thoughts on full EVs, Hybrids and ICEs.

I personally have no interest in owning a full on EV car or motorcycle for several reasons.

1. Fire risk: Driving a car with lithium batteries presents an added dangerous situation and it's an unnecessary risk if ICE/Hybrids with NiMH vehicles are still available for sale. if you ever get into an accident that damages the battery pack or if any of the fail safe monitoring systems go south (which also does happen) you have a dangerous inextinguishable Lithium fire. I talk to many folks my age (30-40) and its all a very similar fear we have, the thought of a car going up in flames from an accident while our children are strapped into a car seat is terrifying. Especially knowing all it takes something to puncture 1 cell to close a circuit and the car goes up in flames. As per the other thread in the Campfire section. Lithium fires are becoming more and more prevalent and our fire fighters cannot fight a fire that doesn't go out, even if you place a burning battery in a lake it will still burn underwater. A good friend of mine is a fire fighter and he has reported to several EV/Lithium fires and the best course of action is to attempt to get the people out of the car and just let it burn. So as a motorcyclist I like to think I'm a master of risk management so in that, riding on top of a highly volatile battery pack with my daughter in the car is an additional risk that I would prefer not to take. I wills say, it's a risk allot of people aren't willing to take as well. Especially after my laptop battery went up in flames earlier this past year.
2. The cost, lack of value and lack of versatility: it is very expensive to get into an EV and it can never take the place of the American family do-it all vehicle which often are demanded for the annual long family vacation trip. I could not use an EV as a primary vehicle. Great example is the Holiday Family Christmas runs. IE: I could only afford a Nissan Leaf new and in that we would not have the range to visit our mothers and fathers in the Leaf, especially when the temps turned south. So an EV offers not allot of versatility or value for those folks that can only afford 1 or 2 vehicles in the garage. My neighbor bought a Leaf and after 3 months it was swapped out for Prius. Asked why he made the swap and he said... The rang isn't enough and they needed something that could easily be filled for trips. I think about the 160 people that work for me, as much as I do my best to offer an affordable wage, the recent inflation costs have put all of us upside down to true value of take home over the past 3 years. In that most folks can only afford 1 vehicle and an EV is not an option. The truth is the EV is a great spot for the 3rd vehicle but most folks can't afford 3 cars so... The EV looses out there
3. Hybrids are still just better and the better fit in a 1 to 2 car household: Right now a Hybrid with a NiMH battery is worlds safer and more practical than an EV. Why the folks I know that have bought EV have turned them in for Hybrids or choosing Hybrids over EVs after trading in their conventional ICE. They offer exceptional Fuel economy, reliably proven (and safe +20 years now) NiMH battery technology. Some run lithium but the big cars (Toyota and Honda in mind) run NiMH. It's just a safer technology, it's technically inferior in performance to Lithium but still offers north of 50MPG and over 500 miles per tank. My little Insight has gotten near 700 miles on it's 11 gallon tank. That is just incredible. Also Hybrids are backup generators on wheels. They can easily power up 5000 Watt and 10,000 Watt inverters and sip gasoline while keeping the lights on in your home. Why at this point I will always have at least 1 Hybrid car in the fold for us. You can still say, hey kids lets go to Florida, hop in and go, spend less than $50 in gas to go 1000 miles and not have to hunt charging stations. The last thing to is when the battery goes to lunch (which they all do right around 150K miles give or take 50K) the Hybrid will still start and get you home and then continue to run until you save the pennies you'll need to swap the pack out.
4. Charging infrastructure, true range and the (not so) hidden costs: Another thing I talk with folks my age about when we discuss EVs is infrastructure, the truth is there isn't much of it here in Vermont and we would need to exclusively charge at home to make it work. There is only a few charging spots in town and they are not fast charging. The other truth is, yes there are Tesla charging stations but to charge your Tesla it costs $22, that's for 250 miles. The 1000 mile trip to Florida that would cost me $50 in gas with my hybrid is going to cost me $88 in my EV. Not to mention your stuck on the route to be close to EV charging stations. Half the fun of a road trip is to get off an exit and take a back highway to beat the slab... Can't do that on an EV if you choose to travel with it. I owned a E-assist bike and it promised a 40 mile range and I bought it to commute with. I tired getting to work with it and every time it died 8-12 miles into the ride. Vermont is very hilly, very curvey which means that you go up and down ALLOT... Range here is not the same as range in Florida or New Mexico. I had an employee buy a Zero motorcycle to commute with, he ended up trading it in for an ICE bike as he would often run out of battery on the ride home... 60-80 miles. EVs get their "claimed" range from regenerative braking and low speed driving/riding (less than 50MPH). In a rural setting we don't stop and go. I have 2 stops on my 25 mile drive into work. Battery cost is also worlds more expensive for replacement than Hybrids because the Batteries are multiple times bigger in an EV. You can replace your Hybrid battery with a reputable aftermarket unit for $2200, buy rebuilt packs for $1500 and rebuild them with new sticks your self for hundreds. That isn't the case for EVs. Most times you have to remove the whole undercarriage of the car to drop the pack. I rebuilt my Hybrid NiMH packs in about 8-10 hours, 20 cells. Teslas have 10 pack each holding hundred of cells. No thank you... Battery packs work and fade over time but there is a point where they just fail to work. Tesla packs range from $5000-$20K. Sure some will get over 200K miles but there are reports of batteries going south as little as 150K miles, even less. My Insight was a deal because the pack went south at 160K miles. They just degrade after hundreds of thousands of micro discharges and charges... The truth is a lithium battery wants to be completely drained and than completely filled... If your filling half or 1/3 capacity your actually hurting the battery more. But how many people are actually pushing their EV to 4 miles left on battery to optimize life? Not many. You need a proper grid charger to make it work correctly for the long haul (For both Hybrid and EV) and that is an extra expense... Generally $500 or more. The Grid chargers will actually deplete the battery and more evenly charge and balance the cells. Great little pieces of hardware but expensive and not thought about when buying an EV or Hybrid...

So sorry for the spiel here, I own a Honda Hybrid (2nd IMA Honda) and love the car. I will always have a hybrid of some form in my door yard and it will likely be old, used and cheap. If you can work on them yourself the cost of ownership is stupid low and the versatility they bring makes it my primary car to use. EVs are always a topic of conversation, my wife, siblings, parents and friends all have recently bought new cars and we did bring up EVs and the possibility of buying one. Allot of these points were brought up. In that my parents bought a hybrid based off my experience but my siblings bought ICE turbo Hondas and hybrid Hondas that get +40MPG my friends ended up getting a Priuses. My wife and I (and many others) fear the lithium fire issue and just never want to be in an accident and than have to try escape injured (severely maybe) with our daughter from a lithium fire afterward. Allot of average folks have no interest in EVs because they don't work for our lifestyles, bring no value for their cost and they aren't happy with being sold an idea that doesn't jive with the realism of the needs of 1 or 2 car households. The dealer issue right now proves one thing. You can vote more impactful policy change by casting your dollar to the individual's ideal and the American public in general all think its not the time for EVs, clearly.

I'm secretly hoping for solid state technology. That will eliminate allot of my fears about the lithium dangers but I honestly would only buy a car with a solid state battery if it was hybrid. Or I would just use the tech in my 24 year old all aluminum Hybrid... When it's pushing 50 on it's all Aluminum body.

Cheers,

All fair comments

1-EV fire risk is not zero but it's apparently much better than ICE. I recall a Ford Pinto being rear ended in my home town, two kids trapped in the back seat didn't make it out, father stood by and watched. My Ford van also had a raging fire after it had been parked for several hours, nearly burnt down a condo complex. Like any new technology expect fire safetyto improve, even ICE's are safer than they've ever been, the Ford Pintos are no more. Major Chinese battery company says it has promising developments with NaCl (salt) batteries, fire resistant

2-Infrastructure will only get better, underpopulated rural areas as always will see improvements last. Hybrids in the short term are a great option. Toyota in the short term are going heavy into hybrids has undoubtedly crunched the numbers looking at infrastructure around the world and sees many regions that are not ready for total ev's. Average car age being 11yrs they're playing a long game with hybrids while they develop Solid State batteries. The Toyota Prime would be my choice if I could get one, 2 yr waiting list and dealers marking up price $20k over MSRP. With the low kms I put on per week I'd likely never use the gas I put in the tank as I would be only be recharging every other day. But if I were to take a highway cruise it's up to challenge and it's as quick as the Toyota Supra.

 

[wyly]

Here is an article from Wired on a technology I don't believe we have even discussed yet. It involves the use of a powder developed from silicon to replace graphite in batteries. Supposedly allows a 500 mile range and a 10 minute charging time. They are to be produced for Tesla, Mercedes, and Porsche so far.

https://www.wired.com/story/panason...a8f5-302adeb0baa6_popular4-1-reranked-by-vidi

I can't even guess what other battery technologies---ones I have not yet even heard of--are under research and development by all kinds of entities around the world. But I am going to predict that before 2030 we will be at the point where it won't make economic sense for anyone to buy a new ICE passenger vehicle..

I agree, even now I think anyone who buys a new $100k ICE pickup is crazy, or they have so much money it doesn't matter to them.

If I needed to buy a vehicle I'd be looking for a good used truck, likely a Tundra/Tacoma, if a car Camry/Corolla or Accord/Civic. Something to carry me through the ICE/EV transition period. As I have a Tundra and Civic I'm good for now.

 

[wyly]

I've mentioned several times evolution. Looks like this may be a big step in the evolution of batteries. I've thought since this big EV push got started, batteries "will" eventually evolve into something logical and economical enough to make EV's something most of us will want and be able to afford. Just seems we're not there yet. Possibly this may be it, we'll just need to give it a while and wait and see what happens.

Yup, For those like my son-in-law he has the income that he can buy the newer evs and hybrids. I can afford it as well but I'm retired and cautious my income is fixed, I'm patient enough to wait until they work out the deficiencies and prices come down to rational levels for entry level evs.